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Guns fall silent in Lebanon after UN-brokered truce
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Guns fall silent in Lebanon after UN-brokered truce
Guns fell silent across southern Lebanon yesterday after a UN-brokered truce went into effect to end five weeks of fighting between Israel and Hizbollah that killed more than 1,250 people and wounded thousands.
Diplomats expect the truce to be fragile ? tens of thousands of Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, and they are not expected to withdraw fully until an international peacekeeping force arrives alongside Lebanese troops. Security sources in south Lebanon said Israeli air strikes and artillery fire continued until just a few minutes before the truce took effect at 0500 GMT. Then there was silence. ?Suddenly, just after 8 a.m. (0500 GMT) there was complete quiet in south Lebanon,? one source said. Lebanese Finance Minister Jihad Azour told France 2 television the truce was holding. ?The situation is stable along the whole border and the zones of hostilities,? he said.
The Israeli army said some Israeli soldiers began pulling out of southern Lebanon after the truce began. ?There are forces going out but there are enough forces that are staying,? a military spokesman said. There were no reports of any Hizbollah rockets being fired at Israel after the truce took hold.
?We are entering the stage of a ceasefire. The firing is over,? a senior Israeli army officer said over the radio, giving orders to his soldiers. ?We hope the ceasefire will be kept. We are asking you to stay alert and prepare as Hizbollah could still break it.?
Hizbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said on Saturday that his guerrillas would observe the truce but reserved the right to resist Israeli forces still in Lebanon. An Israeli air strike on a van on the outskirts of the eastern city of Baalbek killed seven people minutes before the truce began, Lebanese medical sources said. Security sources said the van was transporting policemen, soldiers and civilians.
Air strikes on a village near Lebanon?s eastern border with Syria killed at least nine civilians, medics said. A policeman died in another strike in the area and one person was killed in a raid on a Palestinian refugee camp, security sources said. Around 1,100 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 156 Israelis, including 116 soldiers, have been killed in the war, which was triggered when Hizbollah captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid on July 12.
What follows the ceasefire in the Lebanon war?
■ Will the truce hold?
Both sides did silence their guns on time, even though fighting went on to the last minute. That does not mean the ceasefire is sure to hold. Israel has said it will not withdraw troops from southern Lebanon until an international force deploys and will respond to any Hizbollah attack. For its part, Hizbollah has reserved the right to fight Israeli troops while they remain in Lebanon. The slightest incident could quickly mushroom into a major confrontation.
■ How soon could the new UN troops deploy?
Diplomats expect it will take at least a week for UN troops and Lebanese soldiers to begin taking over southern Lebanon. Israeli forces would then withdraw from an area they gave up in 2000 after a 22-year occupation. France appears ready to lead the force and diplomats envision an initial French deployment of 2,000 soldiers. Many other contributors would be needed to bring the strength near 15,000. Italy has volunteered troops. So has Indonesia. Spain might also contribute.
■ So who won?
Both sides claim victory. Hizbollah still holds the two Israeli soldiers whose capture in a cross-border raid on July 12 sparked the war. The guerrillas have also survived the onslaught of one of the world?s mightiest armies. They have managed to put the issue of the disputed Shebaa Farms border area on the agenda. Under the resolution, Israel would achieve its goal of getting Hizbollah away from the border to be replaced by the Lebanese and UN forces. The resolution could also make it harder for Hizbollah to get new supplies of rockets. It calls for the implementation of a UN resolution providing for Hizbollah?s disarmament, but does not say when. Israel believes it has done much more damage to Hizbollah than the guerrilla group acknowledges. Civilians on both sides have been the big losers.
■ What will it mean for olimert?
He faces a battle for political survival. Despite the assertions that Israel got a good deal, the government?s handling of the war has come in for growing criticism.
Many Israelis, including some top officers, believe troops should have gone in much earlier and much harder to try to do more damage to Hizbollah and stop it firing rockets into Israel ? even if that would have meant more dead soldiers. Days of apparent dithering ahead of the UN resolution did not help. First, Olmert put a major invasion on hold to give diplomacy a chance, then launched it after a deal was reached.
■ What will it mean for Hizbollah?
By agreeing to the deployment of the Lebanese army backed by a strengthened UN force south of the Litani, Hizbollah has made a concession that it had resisted since the Israeli withdrawal in 2000. The group will have to answer tough questions from its domestic rivals for igniting the crisis and may come under renewed pressure to disarm. But it is enjoying a wave of support in the Arab world and among Shi?ite Muslims in Lebanon for its battlefield successes and may well ride out any domestic storm in the short term. Israeli bombing may have reduced its military capacity and the UN-Lebanese troop deployment in the south may limit its options, but the guerrilla group will remain a potent force as long as it retains its weapons.
■ What will it mean for Lebanon?s government?
The Lebanese government could emerge stronger if the resolution is implemented quickly and smoothly. Extending its authority over the south strengthens its hand but will also raise expectations of aid for displaced civilians wanting to rebuild their shattered lives. But postwar recriminations could heighten political and sectarian tensions, threatening the government as well as Lebanon?s fragile balance between Sunni and Shi?ite Muslims, Christians and Druze.
■ Will Israel and Hizbollah return to war?
Israelis very much expect a return to war if Hizbollah remains armed, whether or not the UN troops remain. Israel reserves the right to re-invade Lebanon if the international force proves ineffective. If Israeli forces withdraw fully from south Lebanon, including the Shebaa Farms, end violations of Lebanese airspace and release all Lebanese prisoners, it would be politically difficult for Hizbollah to renew its attacks ? although any regional war involving Syria or Iran would change the equation.
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