As tropical storm Jeanne and hurricane Ivan joined in a morbid marriage to wreak havoc in Haiti and the US south coast, the question of global warming is back on the agenda. Are the terrible events in the Caribbean (let us not forget Grenada, which was 90% flattened), Bangladesh and China, pointing towards the norm rather than the exception? Will freakish weather conditions, coupled with unparalleled natural disasters, replace a myriad of weapons of mass destruction as the future threat to humanity? With Mauritius bracing itself for its cyclonic season, could it be facing the unpredictable and dreadful consequences of global warming?

It is now 16 years since the United Nations established the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since then, this association of climate scientists has been delivering ominous warnings about global warming. Mauritius became the first member state to ratify the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) after the Rio summit in 1992. But the omens for the country, as outlined in the UNFCCC report, did not look good. After a brief campaign to raise awareness among the population about the protection of the environment and the equally ephemeral media rallying around the El-Nino phenomenon, climate issues petered out. We were back to political pettifogging. Declining economic performances polarised our attention.

However, the findings of the IPCC remain potent and the weather is back on the agenda again, with British prime minister Tony Blair urging signatories to meet their Kyoto target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Failure to do so could lead to irreversible damage to the environment, further melting of the polar icecaps and the loss of human lives. Numerous plant and animal species also face extinction. But it is the rising sea level that strikes fear in climatologists. For Mauritius and the Small Islands Developing States group, this spells disaster.

1030 hectares threatened

According to IPCC estimates, by 2100, the sea level would have risen by 50 cm, engulfing 1030 ha of Mauritian territory. Although this represents only 0.5% of the country?s landmass, this fraction is priceless. In fact, we stand to lose large parts of our coastal area as they are among our lowest lying areas. The disappearance of our beautiful beaches will accelerate the decline of our tourist industry, leading to mass unemployment. Already, we are witnessing a receding coastline at an annual rate of one metre.

The sugar sector, which faces a challenging future on the competitive world market, can also expect bad news from global warming. As a result of higher atmospheric carbon dioxide content, sugar content of cane will fall despite an increase in dry matter. This is because of the reduced partitioning of sucrose in the absence of adequate levels of oxygen and high atmospheric carbon dioxide content. But the problem with global warming is its domino effect. The rise in one parameter affects another and the effect is compounded. Hence, as global temperatures peak, cyclones will occur more frequently, and with greater intensity. Agriculture will suffer from decreased harvests and the sugar crisis will intensify.

If the situation looks disastrous for Mauritius, the Maldives are expected to be completely submerged by 2080. Another problem that will accompany the planet?s warming is the forecasted scarcity of safe drinking water. Mauritius will not escape the phenomenon of ?coral bleaching? in the Indian Ocean. This process is the name given to coral death in the sea. As the temperature of oceans rise, corals turn white and die. The Caribbean, the Indian Ocean and the Great Barrier Reef near Australia are already suffering from the hotter seas. Pollution and intensive fishing have also contributed to bleaching. Sea water will then find a way into the bedrock of many islands, wiping out their subterranean water reserves. Research by the UNFCCC indicates that Mauritius relies on underground water for 60% of its domestic, agricultural and industrial needs.

Global warming is also coupled with population growth and migration. The latest report from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) State of the world population 2004 indicates that, by the middle of the century, the number of people in the world would have increased by 50% to 9 billion. Immigration, both internal and external will transform the demography of the planet. The UNFPA predicts that, by 2007, half the population of the planet will be urban dwellers. This produces a vicious circle. Climate change displaces people from the countryside as the land becomes more arid, while more people in the city escalates pollution. It also means that wet regions become affected by higher frequencies of floods, while dry regions will continue their descent into barrenness.

Population often guilty of wastage

For some parts of Africa and Asia, this entails progressive desertification. The United Nations has set up a special commission to monitor this process. 40% of the planet is already covered by drylands and global warming will only exacerbate the situation in these regions. North Africa, the Nile Delta, large tracts of Southern Africa and the Sahel will see the proliferation of drought, soil erosion, decreased crop yield and eventually desertification. The Yellow River was once known as China?s Sorrow because of the negative consequences brought about by its constant overflowing. However, it now runs dry 200 days a year because of global warming.

According to the UN, 30 nations faced water shortages in 2000. In 16 years, this number will rise to 50. But while many countries face droughts and a variety of natural calamities, Mauritius continues to treat global warming nonchalantly. We continue to build water guzzling golf courses everywhere around the country while luxury bungalows and apartment complexes equip themselves with swimming pools.

The problem does not lie with the authorities only, as the population is often guilty of wastage. Our water resources are already stretched to their limits, coupled with a fragile ecosystem. Climate change is inexorable. We are suffering from the abuses of the past forty years. If these mistakes are not addressed now, humanity itself will be in peril.

<B>Diren VALAYDEN</B> <I>Outlook Correspondent in Dublin</I>