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China takes trade heat amid US election campaign

22 mars 2004, 20:00

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What do computer chips, bras, low wages and a fixed currency have in common? They are all areas where China is embroiled in trade spats, which are back in the spotlight as the US presidential election campaign heats up. But analysts said the complaints are unlikely to dent growing economic ties between the two Pacific powers, which saw bilateral trade grow about 22 percent in 2003 to more than $180 billion.

?Nobody is setting a can of dynamite under the political relationship and setting it off this year, and that?s pretty unusual,? said Bill Overholt, an Asia policy adviser for RAND Corp, a US think-tank. ?I?d emphasise how minor the issues are. In the larger scheme of things this has been pretty minor stuff,? Overholt said.

Last week, the US filed the first WTO complaint against China since it joined the body more than two years ago, saying a higher tax on imported computer chips was unfair. Just days earlier, labour groups led by the AFL-CIO asked the Bush administration to investigate what they said were widespread workers? rights abuses that keep China?s labour costs low.

?It was very unlikely the US was never going to make petitions to the WTO about China, and the fact that it?s coming in an election year is also not very surprising,? said Paul Cavey, an analyst with The Economist Intelligence Unit in Hong Kong.

Those issues join brassiers, colour televisions and wooden bedroom furniture as areas where the United States is calling foul on the world?s sixth-biggest economy and one of the top trading nations.

Yuan, Yuan, Yuan

Then there is the steady drumbeat of complaints about China?s yuan currency. Some US politicians and industries say the yuan, fixed at about 8.28 to the dollar, is undervalued. A group of US manufacturers, farmers and labour groups called the Fair Currency Alliance has said it wants an investigation into whether Beijing has depressed the yuan to boost exports. ?The currency issue is a bit tricky, and is really a political issue,? said Victor Shih, political science assistant professor at Northwestern University who specialises in China.

Many economists point out that the yuan was overvalued after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, yet Beijing resisted the temptation to devalue. Pressure for the yuan to rise may well ease if China?s trade deficit, which hit nearly $8 billion in the first two months of this year, grows. But while China?s high-revving economy, hungry for machinery, components and raw materials, overall has been importing more than it exports, Washington has fretted over its own fast-growing deficit with China.

US exports to China jumped nearly 29% in 2003 over the year before, topping $28 billion. But imports rose 22 percent to more than $152 billion, US figures show. Much of that is because a lot of final assembly has moved to China, where workers screw together parts made in neighbouring countries like South Korea and Malaysia. ?China has this tiny piece but gets political credit for the entire thing,? Overholt said. ?Basically, it?s an accounting error but it?s a politically explosive accounting error.?

Washington must also keep in mind that many US companies, from car giant General Motors to fast-food operator Yum! Brands Inc, are turning to China to fuel growth. ?There is actually a huge business constituency out there lobbying for the status quo,? Shih said.

China has reacted to the criticism mildly. The Commerce Ministry voiced bewilderment over the computer chip complaint, but has so far refrained from threatening retaliation. ?I think the disputes are normal. Each side has their reasons and may compromise in the end,? said Li Yushi, vice director of a Commerce Ministry think tank. ?There are always various trade disputes or frictions,? Li said. ?You may have this type of trade friction today and another type tomorrow.?

Scott Hillis

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