Any attempt towards assessing the long-term impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in Mauritius will have to grapple and come to terms with a string of policy issues, including methodological bottlenecks, which ensue, in view of rendering such an exercise plausible. Tentatively, the following come to the fore. 

Despite the ubiquitous nature of the pandemic, the full ramifications of its impact have yet to unfold. Planning ahead for policy-makers and think-tanks, under such circumstances, is questionable, even more so, if we do not know how long the pandemic will last and the extent to which government assistance can meet the challenges resulting from the economy’s shutdown. In the same vein, one may wary about the fiscal measures that would need to be introduced to come to the rescue of small and medium enterprise (SME) employers. 

This begs the question if policymakers, in concomitance with the financial markets, would be ready to race into designing rescue or stimulus plans, or other remedial actions in light of the fast undergoing economic changes. It still remains to be seen whether enterprises would be compelled to have recourse to a substantial number of layoffs, adding to the already relatively high level of unemployment, when substantial employment growth would be needed in many sectors of the economy. Linkages between the export sectors and the local economy would most probably be seriously hit. Tourism, as a major source of earnings, is a case in point. In essence, the direct and indirect jobs related to this sector could likely follow suit, with the possible loss of its international competitiveness and the diminishing multiplier effect on indirect employment, created by the sector. 

We may assume that the crisis would have a negative impact on the poverty level. From a methodological point of view, any attempt towards measuring the poverty rate, poverty gaps or poverty pockets, resulting from the crisis, would have to face the reality of the dire absence of poverty data. Other labour marketrelated issues would need to be addressed. Here again, the paucity of up-to-date data, emanating from regular labour force and household surveys, remains a serious stumble block, which needs to be addressed. 

«Paucity of up-to-date data, emanating from regular labour force and household surveys, remains a serious stumble block, which needs to be addressed.»

It would prove further difficult, in the absence of relevant data, to assess the social impact of the crisis on the labour market on a wide range of issues, notably, social safety nets, vulnerable groups, such as women, youth, the handicapped, semi-skilled categories, and those in the informal sector – local fishermen and other casual workers, among others. Similarly, up-todate sectoral data would be needed to measure the impact of the crisis on various sectors of the economy. 

The use of foreign workers would need renewed consideration. The government would need to bring together the stakeholders of the world of work, including key ministries, employers’ and workers’ organisations, as well as civil society to build consensus on a fair migration agenda that takes into account labour market needs, while protecting the interests and rights of all workers. The promotion of social dialogue in policy-making on migration would assume importance with regard to job insecurity and it would be a useful instrument to ensure reasonable social protection for all, through social safety nets, bearing in mind the needs of low-income groups, in particular. 

In light of the drawbacks underlined above, it is clear that one can only proceed tentatively through hypotheses or guesstimates, at this point in time. Without available data, assessing the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic may prove far-fetched, if not providing only a mere bird’s-eyeview of its extent and magnitude.

Dr Rajendra Paratian, expert in sociology and development economy.